Human behavior cannot be predicted accurately, consistently. Distrust anyone who claims to know the future, including me, however dimly. With a thousand people flipping coins, several may have 10 straight heads, they are not more talented or intelligent, and the next flip is still 50/50.
Predictions and forecasts encourage belief in a single solution. Optimism is expecting the best because of that belief. Never value an investment based on optimism alone. Confidence comes from sticking to the plan of how you will handle the worst possible outcome. Plan and look for signs the venture is not progressing as expected. It is always easier to make a decision when you are out of the venture, if in doubt, exit. You can always find a new place for your money.
A new deal of the year comes every week. The deal of the century comes every two months. Wait for the almost sure thing.
Ego and self-confidence are a challenge to any plans future.
Long range plans engender the dangerous
belief that the future is under control. Never take long range plans seriously.
All investments need to be re-evaluated regularly to see if the assumptions
they were based on still stand. The longer the projection, the less accurate.
A plan working for two years is no guarantee of its continued success.
Knowledge has value. Buy the book before you buy the
investment. Understand not only the basics of the investment class,
but where, when, why, who and how it is traditionally traded. Look for
an advantage in timing, quantity, etc. The professionals have to trade,
I can wait on my bet for a very strong hand.
Frequent trading is my brokers profit, not mine!
With all my experience investing I've only had three advisory services where I was comfortable using their input as a starting point in my thought process. One was the Ney Reoprt by Richard Ney, author of several useful books in the 1960s including The Wall Street Jungle, Mr. Ney is no longer with us; look for the book in a used book store. The other two are the Elliot Wave Theorist, and the Dow Theory Forcasts. Look at these two, get some of their free information. Join club EWI for free and read their articles and get free training; you can get a 30 day free trial from DTF.
Many educational programs are free at EWI, join the club and take your pick.
Dow
Theory Forecasts - Your Guide to Financial Independence
Remember to think for yourself. Many of their ideas will be good, and quite a few will be timely; but only a few will be both good and timely for you. Make up your own mind. No one cares more about your money than you.
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